Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 12.691128 15.511590 18.651795 22.384581 26.677303 31.435834 37.085183
2025-12-21 8.094583 11.523736 15.784520 21.369432 28.391594 36.820351 47.584873
2025-12-28 6.132238 9.850500 14.876398 21.951553 31.419263 43.406473 59.457202
2026-01-04 4.751377 8.517641 14.002208 22.206249 33.761318 49.028177 70.237565
2026-01-11 3.811291 7.563319 13.407573 22.625263 36.183977 54.741173 81.304199
2026-01-18 3.154290 6.883155 13.059359 23.268302 38.858507 60.842368 93.103420
2026-01-25 2.457233 5.951623 12.133628 22.863341 39.885077 64.612899 101.799606
2026-02-01 2.017038 5.378471 11.688350 23.117393 41.848698 69.749284 112.567078
2026-02-08 1.578774 4.684826 10.902407 22.682733 42.650199 73.157977 120.940189
2026-02-15 1.208782 4.023809 10.050756 22.004285 42.954535 75.770387 128.189606
2026-02-22 1.034179 3.772498 9.949243 22.630988 45.416192 81.762237 140.654492
2026-03-01 0.816508 3.335465 9.386321 22.325572 46.250390 85.216253 149.380365
2026-03-08 0.661892 3.034091 9.098213 22.584430 48.207082 90.756572 161.875268
2026-03-15 0.465858 2.512081 8.204982 21.538536 47.777065 92.441985 168.515966
2026-03-22 0.386480 2.343108 8.117089 22.122634 50.333568 99.141015 183.292004
2026-03-29 0.309208 2.138164 7.892382 22.378770 52.277689 104.879691 196.716156
2026-04-05 0.251711 1.979411 7.754271 22.800314 54.549411 111.254748 211.368352
2026-04-12 0.210220 1.866974 7.720310 23.447227 57.288637 118.533810 227.719318
2026-04-19 0.153698 1.628882 7.260421 23.039828 57.898185 122.100369 238.036654
2026-04-26 0.121292 1.495966 7.088690 23.295410 59.847700 128.098378 252.578413
2026-05-03 0.086163 1.301144 6.661581 22.858130 60.325629 131.455392 262.748827
2026-05-10 0.057604 1.105698 6.168351 22.175572 60.220661 133.721968 271.103637
2026-05-17 0.047025 1.051072 6.172996 22.806073 62.963854 141.330818 288.858791